Does Protest Affect Bystanders? Evidence from a Field Experiment

• In Event: Protest Dynamics and Social Change

Abstract

A rich body of observational work documents the effects of protest on various political outcomes such as election results, policy change, public opinion, and political behavior. Yet, the mechanisms behind these audience effects are largely unknown. We argue that observing political protest functions as a strong and highly visible cue that conveys summary information about the distribution of attitudes and behaviors in society, creating the impression of a swaying public opinion. To test this argument, we conduct a field experiment in the context of a large-scale climate strike organized by Fridays for Future (FFF).

We recruited citizens in the city of Berlin and randomly allocated them to a treatment (exposed to the protest) and a control condition (not exposed to the protest). In our methodological approach, we ensure a robust comparison between the groups by controlling for pre-existing attitudes and behaviors towards environmental issues. By manipulating participants’ exposure to the FFF protest, we test whether bystanders – individuals unintentionally drawn into the role of observers – update their norm perceptions, environmental attitudes, and behaviors in response to witnessing the climate strike. Additionally, we incorporate a nuanced measurement strategy that includes both direct and indirect indicators of attitude change. A few weeks after the protests, we conduct a follow-up survey among participants to measure long-term effects.

We find that while bystanders adapt their social norm perceptions and behaviors, attitudes remain initially unchanged. These findings fill an important gap in the literature by unveiling the mechanisms through which protests translate into shifts in political outcomes. Our study also discusses the implications of these findings for understanding the role of public demonstrations in shaping environmental policy and public discourse.

Authors

• Violeta Haas

• Daniel Bischof, Aarhus University

• Felix Hartmann, Copenhagen Business School

• Macartan Humphreys, WZB

• Heike Klüver, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

• Lukas Frederik Stoetzer, University Witten/Herdecke