Conspiracy Theories and Public Opinion: Evidence from the Turkish Elections

• In Event: Conspiracies and Misinformation in Comparative Political Psychology

Abstract

Relying on earlier studies capturing the antecedents and consequences of conspiracy theory beliefs, we tackle (i) the indicators of these beliefs, (ii) the effects of these beliefs, and (iii) the influence of source and credibility effects on belief update and attitude formation in a non-WEIRD context with heightened polarisation, significant populism, and erosion of democracy.
Turkey experienced two important elections in 2023. While the first round of elections (including both the parliament and the presidential ballot) was held on May 14, the second round for the presidential vote was held on May 28. Prior to these elections, a major earthquake shook the eastern part of the country, causing major political challenges for the incumbent party and the Presidency. Yet, conspiracies have evolved quickly after the earthquakes on a wide range of issues, including the source of quakes relating to titanium rods sent from a space station to US-led HAARP technology.
To test our expectations, we conducted two nationally representative surveys before and after the first round of the elections. The surveys included an experimental aspect where we manipulated the source of the conspiracy theory (in wave 1) and provided a possible credible source to correct the conspiracy belief (in wave 2). This experimental aspect of the surveys will allow us to isolate and analyse the causal impact of conspiracy theory exposure on voter attitudes and preferences.
Our findings reveal that conspiracy theory beliefs significantly impacted Turkish public opinion and voting decisions. Individuals who believe in conspiracy theories are more likely to support the incumbent government and the president than those who don’t believe in them. Furthermore, those who embraced these conspiracies exhibited heightened anxiety and fear, believing the earthquakes were part of a hidden agenda. Those exposed to conspiracy theories were more likely to vote for the government and leadership that capitalised on the anti-Western sentiment. We also find evidence regarding the source and credibility manipulations interacting with partisanship, which we will explore further in the paper.

Authors

• Cengiz Erisen, Yeditepe University

• Joanne Miller, University of Delaware