Alike but Not the Same: The Political Consequences of Migration in Chile

• In Event: Latin American Politics and Populism in Diaspora

Abstract

Does immigration increase far-right support? The migration literature has tried to address this question for many decades, failing to agree on whether immigration is driving the far-right vote or the potential channels through which exposure to migrants may fuel it. The recent 2012-2022 migration waves from Venezuela and Haiti to Chile are ideal for addressing this question since they allow us to identify the effects of migrants with and without ethnic-cultural similarities with the natives. Using a shift-share IV model, this paper estimates the importance of ethnic-cultural differences as a mechanism by which migration affects the far-right vote. Our findings support Allport's contact theory (1954), suggesting that engaging with culturally different migrants curbs prejudice and anti-migrant party affiliation. Specifically, the results show that in the last two general elections of 2017 and 2021, a 1% increase in the share of culturally different migration yields up to an 8% decrease in far-right voting. Overall, aggregated migration shows no effect in far-right support, suggesting that other factors like crime or economic perceptions drive its current electoral success.

Author

• Alonso Roman, Bocconi University