The Causal Effect of Independent Candidacies on Voter Turnout: The French Case

• In Event: (De)Mobilizing the Alienated and Discontent

Abstract

The literature provides conflicting evidence on the effect of independent candidacies on electoral participation. First, independent candidates are seen as a threat to voter turnout as they increase the information costs of voting. Second, independent candidates are considered capable of mobilising voters who are dissatisfied with traditional party politics and whose representational ideal lies precisely in the lack of a party label. Causal evidence on how independent candidates affect voter turnout in the European context is still lacking. This paper addresses this gap by applying a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to 11 French local and regional elections spanning from 1998 to 2021. Under this two-round voting system, any candidate whose vote share exceeds a defined threshold is allowed to compete in the second round. This allows for a unique setting in which I can compare second-round turnout in constituencies where an independent candidate just passed the threshold with those where they just failed, and thus provide a causal estimate of the relationship between the presence of independent candidates and voter turnout.

Author

• Jeanne Marlier