Follow the Issue, Not the Leader: Party Switching after Referendum Voting

• In Event: Following the Leaders? The Impact of Dynamic Individuals

Abstract

How do voters reconcile a conflict between their issue preferences and their favourite parties’ positions? Recent studies highlight that voters often “follow the leader”, by aligning their opinions with those of their favourite political leaders. Yet, even in polarized societies, there are instances in which voters take positions that contrast with party positions, such as in referendum campaigns. In this study, I argue that after voting in a referendum, a relevant share of voters “follow the issue” and change party preferences to accommodate issue preferences, in line with a spatial model of issue voting. I test this argument with cross-sectional and panel data related to six referendums that took place in four countries (Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK) between 2015 and 2022. Results show that support for parties changes following referendum votes in each country, with some ambivalent voters “switching” to the parties that are aligned with their own position on the referendum issues. Ideological distance between voters and parties, however, moderates vote switching. Further evidence from a survey experiment conducted in the run-up to a series of referendums in Italy in 2022 addresses potential issues of reverse causality and confirms that voters move closer to the parties with which they share the same issue positions. These findings have relevant implications for how adopting direct-democratic tools of decision making can influence the configuration of party systems, and put recent evidence of political elites’ ability to influence public opinion in a nuanced perspective.

Author

• Davide Morisi, University of Southern Denmark