Decline of the LIO? Sources of Resilience in the Face of Mounting Challenges

• In Event: Crisis of the Liberal International Order: Resilience, Adaptation, or Collapse?

Abstract

Many scholars and practitioners agree that the liberal international order (LIO) is in crisis. The argument is that the rise of nationalist sentiments in core member states, along with the emergence of competing states with more state-centered economies and authoritarian political regimes, is threatening the liberal orientation of the order. Despite this claim, there is a lack of systematic empirical analyses. This contribution aims to fill that gap by examining and explaining the liberal vision of international organizations (IOs). Drawing on a novel dataset that measures 28 IOs’ rhetorical commitment to fundamental liberal norms, such as democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, from 1980 to 2019, we offer the first comprehensive theoretical and empirical analysis of IOs’ liberal vision. We identify patterns in IOs’ liberal vision across time and world regions and statistically test the impact of nationalist and authoritarian challenges. The central results are threefold. First, contrary to conventional wisdom, many IOs have not reduced their liberal vision. Second, the negative effect of nationalist and authoritarian challenges only materializes in IOs with limited resilience. Third, IOs that can draw on more substantial sources of resilience, including institutional design, international bureaucrats, and peer support, tend to withstand recent challenges and retain a liberal vision.

Authors

• Tobias Lenz, Leuphana University Lüneburg

• Henning Schmidtke, European University Institute