Do Proportional Electoral Systems Favor Polarizing Candidates from the Right?

• In Event: The Causes and Consequences of Polarized Politics

Abstract

Western democracies are grappling with escalating political polarization. This presents a profound challenge to democratic norms and institutional functionality (Sen 2020). It engenders impediments to government formation, stability, and more broadly, undermines social cohesion. The potential for polarization to intensify political gridlocks, fostering a cycle of increased polarization, has been noted in the literature (Dixit and Weibull 2007).
Scholars have increasingly directed their attention to examining the origins of these concerning developments. They have notably underscored the influence of social media (Bail et al., 2018; Allcott et al., 2020; Levy, 2021; Azzimonti and Fernandes, 2023; Törnberg, 2022), widening income disparities, globalization, and various other factors. This paper contributes to the discourse by exploring the determinants of electoral success for polarizing political forces. While existing research predominantly concentrates on societal developments, particularly the role of social media, our analysis extends into the realm of original political science frameworks. Specifically, we investigate the influence of electoral systems in elucidating the proliferation of polarization.
This study aims to empirically evaluate the extent to which plurality-based proportional representation systems incentivize political parties to adopt extremist policies. We will demonstrate that such a transition consistently results in a substantial decline in popular support for the respective political party. However, polarizing political factions may willingly embrace this decline in popular favor, as it does not adversely impact their chances of electoral success. On the contrary, employing a divisive approach among the electorate can potentially serve as a viable electoral tactic, despite the risk of alienating a larger number of voters compared to those it manages to attract.
We rely on empirical data taken from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) to analyse the empirical relevance of our claims. Covering a large set of countries and parties, our our findings substantiate two key assertions. Firstly, candidates espousing polarizing views tend to be more frequently positioned at the extreme ends of the ideological spectrum. Secondly, within a political system employing plurality-based voting rules, these candidates tend to garner electoral advantages. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the impact of the voting system disproportionately favors politicians aligned with right-wing political orientations. We interpret this outcome based on the rationale that far-right ideology induces a greater degree of intense disagreement among voters identifying as moderate or left-leaning compared to the level of disagreement provoked by radical left ideology. Consequently, proportional representation systems contribute to political polarization, with right-wing political forces emerging as the primary beneficiaries.

Author

• Anna Sophie Kurella, Universität Mannheim