The Varied Sources of Local Job Losses and the Impact on Voting Behavior

• In Event: Globalization and Labor Market Disruptions

Abstract

How do economic shocks matter for democracy? Previous research demonstrates, via public opinion surveys, that economic shocks affect political attitudes. But their effect on voting behaviour is less well understood. In this paper, we investigate the effect of local economic shocks, and subsequent job losses, on voting behaviour in local, regional and national elections in one of the largest economies in Europe, Spain. To illuminate the mechanisms connecting economic shocks to voting behaviour, we exploit the significant variation in the sources of job losses. We find that job losses stemming from globalization engender distinct electoral responses, as compared to job losses from other factors. When jobs move abroad, voters respond more strongly than when jobs move to a different part of the country, even parts of the country far away from the local area. We also explore the extent to which government interventions aimed at compensating voters for local job losses temper the electoral repercussions of economic shocks at both the local and national levels. Our research offers valuable insights into the dynamics of electoral choice and democratic politics in the wake of economic instability.

Author

• Stephanie J. Rickard, London School of Economics