Policy Expectations and Information Provided in Democratic Backsliding Contexts

• In Event: Democratic Backsliding: Causes and Consequences

Abstract

How do voters use information to update their evaluations of prospective policy promises? What if the information is provided by (opposition) elites? The latter is especially an interesting question in democratic backsliding cases where the incumbents typically dominate information environments through their control over the media. We know that nonpartisan sources in general can have more effect because of their credibility (Alt et. al. 2016), but (how) does updating occur if the information is provided by an opposition actor in a setting where there are limited opportunities to dispute incumbent’s claims? Earlier studies highlighted heterogeneity in policy updates due to individual characteristics such as cognitive ability (Ciani et. al. 2023), but the asymmetry between incumbents and opposition in nondemocracies calls for further analysis in these contexts. Here we focus on (ideological) proximity to the source of information and retrospective evaluations of the political actor providing the information. We analyze both factors with a survey experiment we conducted prior to the 2023 general elections in Turkey. We find that information provided by the opposition in favor of their supported policy (strengthening buildings against earthquakes) moves the respondent closer to the opposition’s position if the respondent is already close to them. If the retrospective performance is highlighted, such a positive effect of information is found when the respondents are, on the contrary, ideologically distant to the opposition party (alliance). In line with the findings of the earlier literature these results are found only if the respondents do not have strong priors, measured here with the saliency of the particular issue for the respondents. The finding on updating by ideologically distant voters has important implications for the possibility of political change as it indicates the ability of opposition actors to change the policy positions of non-supporters.

Authors

• Aysegul Atas, Sabanci University

• Ozge Kemahlioglu, Sabanci University