External Dynamics and Insurgent Violence in Human Trafficking

• In Event: Human Rights Violations in Armed Conflict

Abstract

What explains insurgent groups’ resort to different forms of civilian victimization? In particular, why do some participate in coerced recruitment and kidnapping, and others go beyond and exploit the victims further leading to trafficking of human beings? While the existing body of civilian victimization research predominantly centers on the actual killings of civilians, this study delves into discrete forms of violence, such as abduction and trafficking, often overlooked in the current literature. The surge in human trafficking among insurgent groups is partially attributed to the high volume of displaced people and fast advancements in transportation and communication technologies. However, these factors alone fail to account for the variation in human trafficking levels among groups operating in similar contexts. Some groups engage in more explicit form of exploitation, using victims for labor or sexual purposes, while others limit their action to kidnapping and forced recruitment for ransom.

As human trafficking is defined as a type of transnational crime, prior research has focused on understanding different group actions based on whether the group has a political goal like overturning the government (insurgent groups) or seeking criminal activities to raise resources (criminal groups). However, many groups continue to exhibit dual motives, participating in both criminal activities for resource acquisition and political actions against the government. Building on studies that highlight how not only governments but also insurgent groups can be affected by and leverage external ties and intervention in their violent actions against civilians, this research expands the investigation into groups’ involvement in human trafficking. Through various external ties in economic, military and human rights norm sectors, insurgent groups can assess potential repercussions and predict the acceptability of their actions. Beyond the dyadic relationship between the government and rebels, external ties play a role in shaping insurgent groups’ decision-making processes regarding civilian exploitation in trafficking.

To empirically test this argument, the study uses and modifies a dataset on insurgent groups and their involvement in human trafficking activities (Avdan and Omelivheva 2021). Analyzing a sample of 157 groups across 52 states from 1998 to 2015, the study examines the relationship between external ties and human trafficking involvement. The dependent variable is the level of human trafficking, measured by whether the group has participated in lower level of trafficking such as: forced recruitment, kidnapping, or have engaged in higher and more severe level of trafficking such as: sexual exploitation, and/or slavery. Independent variables gauge economic, military, and shaming support from external actors. I test three hypotheses, suggesting that stronger external support from each sector respectively lead to lower likelihoods of insurgent groups engaging in higher and severe level in human trafficking. A quantitative analysis at the group-year level will be used, including some specific country traits and confounding factors such as organizational factors, territorial control, rebel group strength, and the Trafficking in Persons Index within the model.

Author

• Ji Hyeon Chung, University of Washington