Ideology and Authoritarian Survival

• In Event: The Evolution of Authoritarian Governance: Strategies, Ideology, and Institutions

Abstract

Autocracies vary widely in the extent to which they promote a coherent ideology, but the implications of regime ideology for authoritarian survival remain understudied. Recent cross-national literature on authoritarian durability has focused mostly on elite-level factors and political institutions, paying considerably less attention to mass appeals and strategies. By propagating a specific ideology and persuading citizens to adhere to it, the regime may cultivate a core of ardent supporters. But hewing to a particular ideological line also has downsides for autocrats. Drawing on new sociological theories of authoritarian survival, I argue that ideology can undermine regimes in two ways. First, by staking out a well-defined political position, dictators necessarily create ideological opponents and risk polarization. And second, by politicizing citizens, the regime risks backlash from their own voters during times of crisis. Using new data from the V-Party project (1975-2022), I show that regimes that take stronger ideological stances are less stable, while regimes that adopt centrist policy positions or rely mostly on clientelist mass appeals are more stable. The paper also explores the individual-level mechanisms behind this finding by examining how regime ideology affects political interest among regime supporters and opponents. Collating data from over 200 surveys in electoral autocracies, I show that there is a large gap in political engagement (and interest) between regime supporters and opponents in regimes with no clear ideological stance. However, in regimes with strong ideologies, opposition supporters are just as politically engaged as regime supporters. Taken together, the findings support the contention that depoliticizing public discourse is one way that modern autocratic regimes neutralize the opposition and shore up the regime.

Author

• Ora John Reuter, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee