Autocratization in an Age of Digitalization

• In Event: The Evolution of Authoritarian Governance: Strategies, Ideology, and Institutions

Abstract

How has the digital landscape and the emergence of digital media influenced the role of political parties in autocratic societies? Additionally, what are the underlying mechanisms by which digital media has reshaped the dynamic between autocrats and their elites? I argue that effective use of digital media has become an extra-institutional career paths for political elites and thus disrupted traditional career advancement paths within authoritarian political parties. This shift introduces uncertainty around the investments made by elites in political parties, prompting them to become less loyal to autocrats and consider defection. By examining low- and high-level elites in Turkey, I present evidence that as a politician's online popularity increases, they are more likely to self-nominate in subsequent elections, receive candidacy from the party, and less likely to defect. These trends persist even after accounting for politicians' mobilizational capacities, which serve as an indicator of their investment in the party. Employing structural equation models, I propose that the primary mechanism behind these outcomes is that digital media assist politicians in revealing their political network to decision-makers within the political party. In comparison, posts about investments in public services only enhance politicians’ career prospects if their posts generate online interaction from society. Conversely, posts about public services that fail to create online engagement may detrimentally impact politicians' career prospects. This paper proposes new insights about elite relations within autocratic contexts and demonstrate how extra-institutional career paths hurt political parties’ organizational dynamic.

Author

• Huseyin Emre Ceyhun, Princeton University