Preference Falsification under Policy U-Turns in Authoritarianism

• In Event: Governing Autocracies in Russia and Eastern Europe

Abstract

Policies in authoritarian states can experience dramatic turns. While theories suggest that domestic audiences will disapprove if the government sharply reverses policy directions and persuading citizens is difficult amid policy changes, a range of empirical studies and public opinion polls found that public opinion in authoritarian states often shifts to realign with the government’s new position after major policy changes. How do we reconcile the theories and the empirics? We argue that the realignment of public opinion with the government's new stance in authoritarian states is less due to the persuasion of the government's rhetoric and propaganda, but instead, it is caused by people's tendency to falsify preference. Through a series of experiments in China, we find that Chinese people tailor their public expression toward the government’s stance on policy issues, even when the government dramatically changes its official stance in the opposite direction. And it is mainly due to preference falsification under perceived government pressure. We also find that such preference falsification causes people's misperception regarding true public opinion, but experimental intervention can conditionally reduce this misperception. Moreover, this misperception has attitudinal and behavioral implications: overestimating the popularity of the government's stance is associated with higher government approval and higher willingness to engage with the government. Our findings shed light on the dynamics of public opinion and the implications of preference falsification in authoritarian states.

Authors

• Mingcong Pan, University of Wisconsin–Madison

• Marshall Mo, Stanford University

• Yiqing Xu, Stanford University