Affective Polarization after the Parties' Relationship Has Soured

• In Event: One Election, Multiple Approaches: The Case of Taiwan

Abstract

How does the emergence of new parties that are not tied to traditional ideological and social cleavages shape the dynamics of affective polarization in multiparty systems? Research on affective polarization in multiparty contexts often associates out-party antipathy with established ideological disagreements or social cleavages. Nevertheless, it says little about whether, and if so how, the presence of newly founded parties contributes to the construction of in- and out-groups. In this paper, we address this understudied question by looking at the context of Taiwan. Specifically, with the recent rise of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) during the 2024 presidential election, we investigate how TPP supporters situate themselves in a relatively polarized system featuring intense competition between two opposing party groups --- the Pan-blue and the Pan-green camps. In particular, we explore the affective connections and disconnections of TPP voters with existing party groups and the affective sentiments held by partisans of established parties towards TPP members.

Building on insights from previous research, we argue that inter-party competition and cooperation play a critical role in shaping affective polarization across party lines. We expect that citizens’ affective assessments of out-party members rely on information related to partisan conflicts between the TPP and the Pan-green camp as well as a potential pre-electoral alliance formed by TPP and the Pan-blue camp during the campaign period. Through two original conjoint experiments, we reveal robust evidence consistent with our expectations. More precisely, respondents supporting TPP reveal greater levels of negative feelings towards voters of the Pan-green camp than towards voters of the Pan-blue camp. Similarly, supporters of the Pan-blue camp express stronger out-group animosity towards members of Pan-green parties than towards TPP supporters. Meanwhile, Pan-green voters express similar levels of negative feelings towards both Pan-blue and TPP supporters. Additionally, our analysis shows that political divisions are more influential than non-political divisions in structuring affective polarization in Taiwan. These results, therefore, contribute to a more general literature that studies affective polarization in multiparty democracies and pose important implications for future research.

Authors

• Nick Lin, Academia Sinica

• Greg Chih-Hsin Sheen, Academia Sinica

• Ronan Tse-min Fu, Academia Sinica