People Power: The Expansion of Secondary Education in the Global South

• In Event: The Global Politics of Education

Abstract

What motivates elites in some states in the global South – and not others – to expand access to secondary education? The existing literature from political science, economics, and comparative and international education scholars have, understandably, focused predominately on primary education as the basis of the modern education system (Paglayan 2022; 2021; Ansell and Lindvall 2013). However, though there has been some scholarship within the varieties of capitalism literature (Baum and Lake 2003), few scholars investigate the drivers of mass secondary education access. This is especially true concerning the global South, particularly nondemocracies, which has historically focused on the expansion of primary education in part because of foreign aid pressure.
However, moving forward, the greatest future expansion of education will be access to secondary education. The most recent Sustainable Development Goal 4, building on the progress in primary education access made during the Education for All era in the late 1990s and early 2000s (Rose et al. 2021; Mundy 2010), explicitly targets the expansion of both primary and secondary education. Many actors around the globe have sought to improve educational outcomes for young people. These calls for education expansion have typically comprised of inspirational rhetoric on education’s theorized role in promoting economic development in low- and middle-income states (Williamson 1990), democratic values (Lipset 1959), and as a guarantor of other human rights (Spreen and Vally 2006). Despite such efforts, there has been significant variation in secondary enrollment over time, particularly in non-democratic regimes in the global South. In other words, existing rhetoric or appeals for nondemocratic regimes to devote greater effort – and expense – to secondary education may not be sufficient. This is especially the case in the use of human rights and economic empowerment discourses to promote the expansion of secondary education for marginalized groups such as adolescent girls, as international donors have historically struggled to make gains despite high levels of foreign aid (Yorke, Rose, and Pankhurst 2021; N. Ansell 2002).
Additionally, while the literature has studied the drivers of primary education expansion in democracies, the question of the drivers of education expansion in nondemocracies remains nascent (Paglayan 2021; Kosack 2012). As over 70 percent of the world’s population live in autocracies, according to the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Democracy Report (2023), the greatest future gains in education access are not only in secondary education, but specifically in nondemocracies in the global South. A clear puzzle, therefore, emerges: why do some nondemocratic regimes in the global South – and not others – expand access to secondary education? The expansion of secondary education is especially puzzling if considering the risk that nondemocratic regimes may face when bringing together educated youth (Zhao 1998), particularly without corresponding employment opportunities (Honwana 2014; Jeffrey 2010; Bush and Saltarelli 2000). This is based on an underlying assumption, promoted for decades in the modernization literature, that expansion of education leads to democratization (Lipset 1968; Diamond 2006; Glaeser, Ponzetto, and Shleifer 2007; Sanborn and Thyne 2014; Dahlum 2019). Despite such risks, what spurs some regimes to expand secondary education?
This article builds on the existing political science scholarship on primary education expansion by the state to propose an alternative theory – to explain variation in access to secondary education in the late 20th century – that emphasizes the role of agent-driven change by society. Based on a cross-national time-series analysis of gross secondary enrollment rates in states in the global South from 1970 to 2020, I argue that in part due to the presence and composition of mobilization from below during the third wave of democratization – which coincided with the Education for All era – elites in the global South often turned to the expansion of secondary education as a tool to ‘concede’ policy reform and avoid potential demands for democratization.
This study proposes a new perspective in the literature, as many scholars have studied how students in secondary and higher education mobilize but few scholars have focused on the other direction: how mobilization may spur increased access to secondary education. The study of the politics of education in developing states is also a ripe area of inquiry in political science, particularly the question of how – and why – to expand access to educational opportunities. Education is a politically contested terrain prominent on the agendas of citizens and regimes alike (Grindle 2004). Inquiry into secondary education will be increasingly important as well, as primary education outcomes improve globally, and transnational and national stakeholders begin to turn their gaze towards addressing the transition to quality secondary education.

Author

• Abrehet Gebremedhin, American University