The Impact of Mass Mobilization Size and Duration on Democracy by Regime Types

• In Event: Protests and Violence in Democracies & Autocracies

Abstract

This paper delves into the dynamics of mass mobilization, building on Chenoweth and Stephan's work showcasing their efficacy in fostering democracy and societal unity. While their research sparked extensive studies on protests and democracy, there remain crucial unanswered questions, particularly concerning the impact of campaign size and duration on protest effectiveness. Furthermore, recent findings reveal a decline in success rates for maximalist campaigns seeking regime change, especially among non-violent movements.

This paper aims to uncover how campaign size, duration, regime type, and tactics (violent/non-violent) interact to drive democratic progress. Using extensive data, including Polity 5 and the NAVCO dataset, covering 128 countries from 1960 to 2018, it examines the impact of campaign size and duration on changes in democracy levels.

By employing survival analysis, this study unveils that campaign size significantly influences democracy levels, particularly in partial democracies without factionalism. Both nonviolent and violent campaigns are positively correlated with democracy levels, with nonviolent approaches exhibiting a stronger impact. However, prolonged campaigns demonstrate a negative relationship with democracy levels. The study underscores the effectiveness of larger nonviolent campaigns in promoting democratic change, shedding light on the complex interplay of campaign size, duration, and tactics in driving democratic progress.

Author

• Heejoo Cheon, George Mason University