The Effect of Electoral Success on Political Trust: The 2024 Belgian Elections

• In Event: Connections between Elections at Multiple Levels

Abstract

Previous research has shown convincingly that participating in elections has a positive effect on levels of political trust. It has been argued that the act of being able to select office holders,by itself, can boost confidence in the democratic functioning of the political system. Some authors have claimed that this effect will be strongest among those citizens who have the feeling that they have "won" the elections. There is disagreemnt in the literature, however, on when exactly this feeling will occur. Is it sufficient that the preferred party has gained votes and/or seats, or do citizens also take into account the participation in a new government. The puzzle becomes even more complicated when various elections are held simultaneously.

In June 2024, Belgium offers an ideal case to address this issue, as elections will be held on the same day for the Federal, European, and regional level. In each of these elections, therefore, a citizen can be a "winner" or a "loser". In this paper, we report on a new panel study where the same respodents (ca. 3000) were interviewed both before and after the elections. In both waves of the panel, political trust and satisfaction with democracy will be questioned. Our hypothesis is that the observed change in political trust reflects the importance that is being attached to one specific level of government.

Author

• Marc Hooghe, University Leuven