Navigating the Tides: The Impact of Media Negativity in the U.S.-China Relations

• In Event: Global Media Flows and Impacts

Abstract

The persistent tensions between China and the United States have drawn attention to their ‘war of words’ in diplomacy. The increasing animosity from both states has impeded official dialogues and escalated the risk of comprehensive confrontation. Starting from the trade war, more conflicts have emerged in geopolitical, technological, and global governance (such as COVID-19) spheres. Meanwhile, scholars have directed their attention to the role of media as a conduit for cross-nation communication and existing theories largely support the argument that political elites dominate media in foreign affairs (Bennett, 1990; Entman, 2003; Aday & Kim, 2008; Dorman & Livingston, 1994). Within this context, some studies have identified a growing trend of increasingly negative coverage of each other by China and the U.S. media (Lu, 2011; Stockmann, 2013; Peng, 2004; Shambaugh, 2003; Xu, 2018; Yang & Liu, 2012). However, the dynamics of interaction between media outlets in China and the United States during these strained relations remain largely unexplored. Who takes the lead in shaping the narrative – Chinese or American media? Do they engage in reciprocal interactions, set agendas unilaterally, or operate independently? How do media outlets respond to negative coverage of their respective countries? And crucially, does media hostility contribute to the polarization of U.S.-China relations?

This study capitalizes on a unique and extensive dataset, comprising 113,258 social media posts from 90 Chinese media outlets on Weibo focusing on the United States, alongside 591,854 tweets from 4,993 American media outlets on Twitter that are centered on China. Additionally, we incorporate Google and Baidu search trend data to gauge public interest in each other. This comprehensive collection spans from August 2016 to May 2023, offering an in-depth exploration of the interplay between media coverage and U.S.-China relations. Utilizing topic modeling, sentiment analysis, and Vector Autoregression analysis, our analysis reveals that Chinese media outlets displayed a slightly higher proportion of negative sentiments compared to their counterparts, with positive coverage remaining consistently low for both sides. Notably, the period of the COVID-19 pandemic saw an elevated level of negative sentiments from both sides. Topics such as human rights, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and COVID-19 tend to evoke intense negative sentiments, reflecting the heightened confrontations between the two countries on these issues. Conversely, topics like sports, culture & arts, and space exploration are more likely to elicit positive sentiments, representing ‘safe topics’ for both sides. A salient trend emerges from our initial findings: U.S. media overwhelmingly shapes the narrative in this bilateral dynamic. Whether leaning positively or negatively, the tone of U.S. media coverage consistently acts as a precursor to the subsequent sentiments found in Chinese media narratives. Intriguingly, this influence appears unidirectional, with the sentiments conveyed in Chinese media lacking a comparable predictive impact on the content and tone of U.S. media. These revelations, coupled with a thorough analysis of specific topics such as human rights, military security, and Hong Kong on Twitter, promise to furnish a nuanced understanding of the media’s profound impact on U.S.-China relations.
 
Moving forward, our research will delve deeper into examining how the media in both countries frame each other (e.g., conflict vs. cooperation framing, us vs. them, ideological threat vs. ideological coexistence), and how these narratives, sentiments, and framings shape public interest and perception in each country. We anticipate that criticism from U.S. media towards China not only elicit a defensive stance from Chinese media but also result in reciprocally negative coverage of U.S. politics and other subjects. Our studies aim to underscore how these inter-media interactions contribute to the affective polarization of public opinion towards the other country, influencing the subsequent trajectory of U.S.-China relations. By shedding light on these intricate dynamics, our research seeks to contribute to a nuanced understanding of the role media plays in influencing and potentially exacerbating the polarization of U.S.-China relations.

Authors

• WEI ZHONG, New York University

• Haoyi Tan, Tsinghua University

• Bingyan Wang, Tsinghua University

• Kaiping Zhang, Tsinghua University