Rising Ethno-Political Inequality and the Risk of Conflict

• In Event: Ethnic Inequality and Exclusion

Abstract

The current world appears to be gripped by a wave of political violence and geopolitical instability. In addition to highly destabilizing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, several bitter civil wars continue to rage, as illustrated by Ethiopia and Myanmar. These conflicts are at least partly fueled by long-lasting, ethno-nationalist inequalities linked to ethnic groups exposure to foreign rule. Previous research has shown that ethno-political inequality increases the risk of civil conflict, but most of the relevant studies are too dated to account for recent developments (see e.g. Cederman, Wimmer and Min 2010 and Cederman, Gleditsch and Buhaug 2013). Indeed, since the early 2010s, the trend has been pointing toward increased ethno-political inequality in many regions of the world. To what extent is this increase responsible for the recent increase in conflict around the world?

Drawing on new data and improved models, the current paper revisits and extends the earlier analyses by considering both civil and interstate conflict. We draw on a new version of the Ethnic Power Relations dataset that extends the coverage to 2023, thus adding more than a decade’s worth of information that precisely covers the recent trend reversal in ethno-political inequality. Instead of relying on standard panel regression as did the previous studies, our updated analysis features research designs that approximate a difference-in-difference logic. This improved inferential strategy allows us to study the impact of rising ethnic inequality rather than that of absolute levels. Finally, to facilitate policy analysis, we present risk assessments of those areas that may see conflict in the coming few years.

Authors

• Lars-Erik Cederman, ETH Zurich

• Luc Girardin, ETH Zurich

• Andreas Juon, ETH Zurich

• Julian Wucherpfennig, Hertie School