Rebel Group Fragmentation and Military Intervention in Civil Wars

• In Event: New Research on Military Intervention

Abstract

How does rebel group fragmentation impact external state support in the form of military intervention in civil wars? Literature on fractionalization and splintering within rebel groups has largely focused on rebel governance and the dynamics of conflict, but has yet to systematically connect the impact of splintered rebel groups to a key dimension of conflict: military intervention. We theorize that fragmentation among rebel groups increases the likelihood of external state intervention, as rebel groups will attempt to differentiate themselves from other rebel groups in the aftermath of fractionalization. This differentiation creates a wider distribution of ideologies, activities, and preferences. With a higher likelihood of preference convergence and increased incentive to support a side in light of destabilizing competition, external states will be more likely to offer military intervention. We test this theory using a cross-country large-N quantitative analysis of rebel group fragmentation and military intervention in civil war, as well as a comparative historical analysis of military intervention in separatist movements in Ethiopia.

Authors

• Rebecca Ellen Dudley, Brigham Young University

• Julia Chatterley