Conceptualizing a Mutual Reliance Framework: The Case of China and Russia

• In Event: Russian Foreign Policy

Abstract

In recent years, much foreign policy commentary has been dispensed regarding the changing nature of Sino-Russian relations. While Moscow was frequently referred to as Beijing's big brother in the aftermath of WWII, the precipitous rise of China and the collapse of Russia's Soviet empire have shifted the power dynamic in China’s favor. Today, both powers are active in building an alternate international order and challenging the existing one. China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin have declared that their mutual partnership has “no limits” and went as far as declaring the intent for joint foreign policy making. Recent scholarship has explored the depth of collaborations between these players, but no work has been done to date to measure mutual reliance between China and Russia. To address this gap in scholarship, our article (a) conceptualizes a theoretical framework to measure mutual reliance between states and (b) applies this framework to analyze the mutual reliance between China and Russia. Using process tracing, our findings suggest that Beijing and Moscow diverge in their motivations for the mutual relationship. While Beijing is guided primarily by realist, state-level concerns, Moscow’s decisions are driven by personalist aspirations and insecurities of the Kremlin. These differences, we argue, lead to Moscow’s long-term reliance on Beijing. Conversely, China’s reliance on Russia, while existent, is easy to substitute and therefore less burdensome on China.

Authors

• Greta Ren Wedel, University of Arizona

• Dmitriy Nurullayev, University of Arizona