The Guerrilla Origins of Authoritarian Durability

• In Event: Unconventional Victories: Origins, Consequences, and Resilience of Rebel Success

Abstract

An influential line of scholarship argues that authoritarian regimes originating in violent rebellion or social revolutionary founding struggles are extremely durable. However, the legacies of founding struggles vary markedly. While some founding struggles beget enduring authoritarian Leviathans, others engender comparatively weak and short-lived regimes. Why? This article proposes an alternate theory connecting founding struggles to authoritarian durability. I argue that the technology of rebellion i.e., how violent founding struggles are fought, critically shapes regime durability. Specifically, guerrilla warfare, which involves civilian mass mobilization, elite socialization and the constructing of wartime governance infrastructures – gives rise to the most durable authoritarian regimes. These formative wartime organizational practices furnish guerrilla regimes with both cohesive ruling elites as well as comparatively sturdier and socially penetrative state infrastructures. As a result, guerrilla regimes prove resilient to both elite and mass overthrow. I find empirical support for this argument using global data on all authoritarian regimes from 1950-2010. I further illustrate the theory through a controlled case pairing of regimes established through violent founding struggle in Uganda. These cases highlight how the distinctive organizational residues of guerrilla warfare enhance authoritarian durability.

Author

• Sean Paul Ashley, Dartmouth College