Conjoint Analysis of the 2024 Taiwanese Presidential Election

• In Event: Local Ballots, Global Ties: U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations in the Presidential Vote

Abstract

The results of the Taiwanese Presidential Election on January 13, 2024, are decisive for the future of Taiwan's democracy. Using conjoint analysis, a survey methodology that improves upon traditional opinion polls, we investigated the Taiwanese electorate’s multidimensional policy preferences underlying voters' single choice in the election in which Lai Ching-te of the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won. We explore the constraints and compromises of voter choice in Taiwan—what the Economist calls the "most dangerous place on Earth." Officially known as the Republic of China, China's territorial claims over Taiwan have formed the two-party heavyweights' competing visions: to seek closer ties with China (Kuo Ming Tang) or to promote a distinct Taiwanese identity (DPP). Challenging this longtime dichotomy between partisan and cultural identity, this election saw viable third-party contenders. To study these issues, we deployed a survey 7 days before the election (January 5, 2024 - January 12, 2024), focused on trade-offs between policy and partisanship and attitudes toward foreign policy and misinformation. Additionally, an unexpected missile alert deployed to the entire island provided an opportunity to estimate the causal effect of threats to cross-strait relations using regression discontinuity design. Preliminary results find that cross-strait affairs and energy are the most important policy issues to voters. Results also provide evidence of pragmatic bias among young voters, as after adding party label cues, there is a significant difference in national identity preference (Taiwan versus China) across the 20-29 and 30-39-year-old age groups on cross-strait affairs.

Authors

• Tracy Weener, Dartmouth College

• Ho-Chun Herbert Chang, Dartmouth College