Rationalizing the Status Quo: Evidence from Beijing’s License Plate Lottery

• In Event: Social Policy, Redistribution, and Inequality in China

Abstract

Authoritarian regimes desire constituencies that show biases toward the status quo but face a dilemma. The more egalitarian the criteria for the distribution, the more acceptable the policy is among non-beneficiaries, the less reason beneficiaries have to feel grateful. However, this paper shows that programmatic distribution can create constituents in favor of the status quo. This may happen because beneficiaries engage with ex-post rationalization. The study focuses on China for its commanding use of bureaucratic allocation, and examines public opinion toward the car ownership restriction in Beijing where new license plates are allocated by lottery. Analysis from an original survey finds that car owners show higher approval of the lottery scheme, measured by perceived fairness and effectiveness in reducing externalities. The differences largely stem from the direct and indirect benefits of car ownership, which motivates beneficiaries to rationalize policy outcomes. The findings contribute to our understanding of citizens’ cognitive biases in institutional evaluations in authoritarian politics.

Author

• Dehua Sun, University of Rochester