Ideology and Extremism in American Local Elections

• In Event: Local Ideology and Polarization: Partisanship in Urban Governance

Abstract

Traditionally, American municipal elections have been perceived as less influenced by ideology due to their non-partisan nature, low-information environment, and focus on local issues. However, new research has found that voters are able to gauge candidate ideology in the absence of partisan labels, and are more inclined to support ideologically-aligned candidates (Holman and Lay 2021, Sances 2018). This paper leverages data from the American Local Government Elections Database (ALGED) from de Benedictis-Kessner, Lee, Velez, and Warshaw (2023), along with an original database on contributions to municipal candidates. I develop candidate ideology scores using common donors between municipal and congressional candidates. This procedure yields over 16,000 candidate-year ideology scores. I additionally utilize personal CF Scores (based on candidates’ own contributions in state and federal elections, see Bonica 2013) from ALGED. With these ideology scores, I identify candidates as extreme if they are in the top or bottom 10% of ideology scores within a city-year.

In descriptive terms, extreme candidates in general election contests are less likely to win than other candidates within the same city and year. That said, extreme candidates are generally worse candidates, even at the general election stage: extreme candidates are less likely to be incumbents and tend to have fewer donors. Utilizing a regression discontinuity design focused on close matchups between extreme and non-extreme candidates, I investigate whether ideologically extreme candidates are penalized. I find that when extreme candidates barely win elections, they are less likely to appear in subsequent general elections relative to non-extreme candidates who barely win. Among those who do run again, extreme candidates are significantly less likely to win.

While some local officials, especially in large cities, address nationalized issues like policing, climate change, and immigration, these results persist beyond executives and prosecutors in big cities. Given that extremity is based on national ideology, it is important to understand why extreme candidates face repercussions at the local level. I investigate two possibilities: first, that ideologically extreme candidates may also exhibit extreme local policy preferences, leading voters to penalize local policy extremism. Alternatively, voters may strongly prioritize alignment with national ideology and policies even in local elections.

Bonica, Adam. "Mapping the ideological marketplace." American Journal of Political Science 58.2 (2014): 367-386.
de Benedictis-Kessner, Justin, Diana Da In Lee, Yamil R. Velez, and Christopher Warshaw. "American local government elections database." Scientific Data 10.1 (2023): 912.
Holman, Mirya R., and J. Celeste Lay. "Are you picking up what i am laying down? Ideology in low-information elections." Urban Affairs Review 57.2 (2021): 315-341.
Sances, Michael W. "Ideology and vote choice in US mayoral elections: Evidence from Facebook surveys." Political Behavior 40 (2018): 737-762.

Author

• Chenoa Yorgason, Stanford University