The Chinese Rentier State Theory: Exports to China and Natural Resources

• In Event: Development and External Dependence

Abstract

Does export dependence contribute to adverse outcomes on the domestic societies of countries with rentier state structures? If so, to what extent do export destinations impact rentier state effects? In both the authoritarian diffusion and Chinese influence literature, scholars have discussed whether trade dependence on China negatively affects politics and civil society domestically. Drawing insights from the California and Shanghai effects theories in the trade and labor rights literature, we argue that exporting to China reinforces rentier state effects, resulting in human rights violations in countries with a higher reliance on natural resource rents. Specifically, having China as the primary export destination can shield repressive regimes' atrocities from international pressures, leading to the repression of civil society organizations. This is more evident in countries that highly rely on natural resource exports, given that governments are enabled to not only neglect the demands of citizens but also target civil society organizations and opposition forces with financial support from resource rents. Based on country-level panel data with a time frame from 2003 to 2021, this study examines the conceptual framework of the Chinese rentier state theory. We find that, in contrast to the climbing-to-the-top effect with trade dependence on the Global North or Western countries, exporting to China mitigates both domestic- and international-level constraints on the repression of civil society, supporting the Chinese rentier state theory. The research outcomes underpin that export destinations matter for civil society in exporting countries. Moreover, this study sheds new light on the authoritarian diffusion literature in the case of Chinese influence.

Authors

• Lin PU, Australian National University

• Shaka Y.J. Li, Florida State University

• Jonas Gamso, Arizona State University