Democracy Hacked? Public Opinion and Foreign Cyber Influence Operations

• In Event: Public Opinion towards Conflict and Cooperation in International Relations

Abstract

While foreign cyber operations targeting U.S. domestic elections are become increasingly widely acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how the public responds to the varying levels of uncertainty surrounding these operations. The surreptitious nature of cyber operations prevents the Intelligence Community from communicating relevant assessments with certainty. Moreover, the limited evidence that cyber operations leave behind often prevents the definitive identification of the perpetrators, which further hinders the public efforts to make sense of the novel threat. This study examines the impact of uncertainty regarding foreign cyber electoral influence on public opinion. Our survey experiment is designed to capture the emotional effects of qualified statements and non-attribution on public decision-making, and their possible interaction with partisan cues. Utilizing insights from the appraisal tendency framework (ATF), we expect that when there is more uncertainty generated by the available information regarding a foreign cyber influence operation there will be relatively muted disapproval for the foreign actor, greater erosion of faith in democratic institutions, and less support for aggressive retaliatory measures. Moreover, we expect individuals to exploit partisan cues in their effort to alleviate uncertainty, which may lead to the exacerbation of partisan double-standards.

Authors

• Hyunso Christy Oh, The Ohio State University

• Christopher F. Gelpi, The Ohio State University