For the Land Itself? Disentangling Motives in Territorial Conflict

• In Event: Public Opinion towards Conflict and Cooperation in International Relations

Abstract

This paper explores a basic question about territorial conflicts: to what extent is the desire to possess the land itself the motive? Prior research emphasizes that disputed territory holds tangible value such as natural resources and intangible value such as perceptions that it is part of a national homeland. However, it is possible that people do not treasure the land itself so much as they desire not to lose it to an adversary. We theorize that potentially losing it to another actor adds ‘competition value’ to territory. We develop the concept of competition value from a rich body of psychology research showing that competition inflates a good’s value beyond its material and symbolic stakes. We investigate these distinct motives with a survey experiment on Japanese attitudes toward the potential loss of the Senkaku Islands. Do the Japanese view losing these islands to a competitor as significantly more detrimental for Japan than losing the islands because they submerge after an earthquake? Or are the islands themselves what matters? Our experiment randomly manipulates whether Japan loses the islands to China, Taiwan, or a geological event. We test whether negative reactions depend on what caused the islands’ loss. The results identify the degree that Japanese citizens value the land itself and the degree that competition inflates territory value.

Authors

• Dan Altman, Georgia State University

• Kathleen E Powers, Dartmouth College