Local Peace Agreements: Civilians, Rebels, Peacekeepers in Conflict Resolution

• In Event: Building a Lasting Peace

Abstract

While existing research acknowledges the pivotal role of civilians in local peacemaking in conflict zones, it is unclear if civilian participation in local peace agreements reduces violence. Existing evidence shows that some local agreements reduce violence while others fail. Filling this gap, I argue that local peace agreements simultaneously create peacekeepers and spoilers, suggesting that they reduce violence against civilians committed by the agreement signatories. However, governments who do not participate in local peacemaking spoil the peace, leading to increased fatalities at the local level. I investigate these arguments using novel, georeferenced data on local agreements in the Central African Republic using spatial analysis. Additionally, I use process tracing to analyze the civilian-rebel negotiations and cooperation in the Haute-Kotto prefecture of the Central African Republic. The results show that international peacekeepers do not play a leading role in local peacemaking but rather assist the communities and rebels. The voluntary integration of communities in local agreements leverages rebel groups to respect agreement provisions and reduce one-sided violence. However, local peacemaking is fragile and undermined by other conflict actors, and local agreements should include stronger security provisions. These findings significantly contribute to the academic and policymaking community.

Author

• Merve Keskin, University of Pittsburgh