Analyzing North Korea's Strategic Shifts and Ideological Evolution

• In Event: North Korea and Its Neighbors

Abstract

According to statements from Kim Jong Un, North Korea is gravitating towards formally severing historical and national ties with South Korea. In December 2023, Kim declared the cessation of South Korea as a partner in national reunification, resulting in the dissolution of state agencies dedicated to enhancing inter-peninsula relations and eventual reunification. Furthermore, in 2024, Kim took a step further by calling for a constitutional amendment designating South Korea as the primary adversary state. This noteworthy transformation in North Korea's perspective toward its Southern counterpart should not be disregarded as mere political rhetoric or diplomatic maneuvering. Given the foundational role of Korean nationalism in North Korea's ideology, this represents a significant shift that warrants careful examination. The study undertakes an analysis of the factors influencing North Korea's ideological shift, exploring aspects such as the development of nuclear deterrence capabilities, escalating hostility from the South Korean government, and changes in the regional balance of power. Subsequent to this analysis, the paper presents two potential future scenarios and delineates the conditions under which each could unfold.

Author

• Taehyun Nam, Salisbury University