Nuclear Fatigue? Experimental Evidence from Australia and South Korea

• In Event: Nuclear Weapons Posture and Proliferation in Asia

Abstract

Does nuclear fatigue occur in non-nuclear weapons states like South Korea that has a neighboring adversary with nuclear weapons? Conversely, is nuclear fatigue observed in non-nuclear weapons states like Australia, which benefits from its geographical distance from potential nuclear flashpoints within the same Asia-Pacific region? How does the presence or absence of nuclear fatigue influence attitudes toward nuclear weapons, including support for indigenous weapons development, their potential use during crises, and belief in their effectiveness as deterrents? I define “nuclear fatigue” as the process by which individuals, organizations, countries, and the international community become desensitized to nuclear weapons and related issues due to the constant exposure to nuclear threats and dangers. In my argument, I posit that nuclear fatigue can manifest in six different ways and would therefore need to be addressed in differently. To examine the presence/absence of, manifestation mechanisms, and the consequences of nuclear fatigue, I run survey experiments in Australia and South Korea and compare the findings as they are both non-nuclear weapons states, democracies, and key U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region with several potential flashpoints. Australia and South Korea’s main differences of geographic proximity to and being at war with a nuclear state may help us understand the origins and consequences of nuclear fatigue better. Because nuclear fatigue can significantly impact the effectiveness and sustainability of nuclear policies and initiatives, this project’s findings will have direct policy implications.

Author

• So Jin Lee, University of Pittsburgh