Mapping the Proliferation of Emerging Technologies

• In Event: Emerging Technologies and International Security

Abstract

Under what conditions do dual-use emerging technologies proliferate in the international system? While the fourth industrial revolution (Information and Communications Technology revolution) is often associated with big data, I contend that emerging technologies should also be known for their level of prominence, complexity, unparalleled connectivity, comparative performance, and uncertainty compared to traditional technologies. This paper focuses on my theory of emerging technologies and their proliferation.

With empirical evidence of historical proliferation, I investigate the likelihood of the proliferation of three technologies: artificial intelligence, robotics, and cyber technology. I select these three emerging innovations based on their date of discovery in the 1940s and 50s and analyze the convergent/divergent paths states took in their development. The outcome variable, proliferation, includes two stages, specifically possession and the operationality of the emerging technology. It is evaluated based on two hypotheses: 1) pathways of technology acquisition, whether through foreign acquisition or indigenous development, and 2) the degree to which there are international institutions governing these emerging technologies. In putting forth a novel definition of emerging technologies, this paper also includes a theory-building case study of the United States and China’s paths concerning these technologies. Overall, scholarly attention to emerging technologies is increasingly important as these innovations continue to take shape and impact the nature of national and international security.

Author

• Julie George, Cornell University