The Dynamics of Minority Candidate Emergence

• In Event: Political Ambition and Candidate Emergence

Abstract

The literature on descriptive representation centers on two key research areas: the electoral choices of voters and the strategic calculus among candidates. Absent from this scholarship is a more comprehensive understanding of how minority individuals enter the emergence process in the first place and how the factors that advance them through the pipeline to power evolve over time. This paper explores this transitional process by examining racial minorities with varying levels of political ambition. In two field experiments in a real-world candidate mobilization effort, I find that intrinsic motivation increases not only the immediate information-seeking behavior but also a longer-term commitment to candidacy. I then use a conjoint experiment in a follow-up survey of minority individuals with varying levels of commitment to running. I find that, as they progress through the pipeline to power, the priorities shift towards strategic factors that impact their winning chances, such as the co-ethnic population size. In assessing the relative significance of intrinsic versus strategic factors, this research provides important implications for understanding the nuanced dynamics of minority candidate emergence and, in turn, minority representation in the United States.

Author

• Diana Da In Lee, Princeton University