When and Why Do Voters Care about Foreign Policy?

• In Event: War, Leaders, and Public Opinion

Abstract

Does foreign policy influence voting decisions, and if so, why and under what conditions? The answers to these questions are foundational to theories about the link between domestic politics and international relations. In this paper, we theorize about what voters infer from candidates’ foreign policy positions and behavior. We further hypothesize about the conditions under which voters would emphasize foreign policy relative to other factors commonly believed to influence voting decisions, such as candidates’ economic and social platforms and personal characteristics. Given the difficulty of testing our hypotheses with historical data, we field a set of large-scale preregistered survey experiments. Our theory and evidence help to explain when and why foreign policy plays a role in elections, providing a crucial missing link in theories of domestic politics and international relations.

Authors

• Jessica L. P. Weeks, University of Wisconsin-Madison

• Michael R. Tomz, Stanford University