Out-of-State Influence in American Direct Democracy Elections

• In Event: Electoral Spending Strategies and Political Influence

Abstract

Why do out-of-state donors contribute to direct democracy campaigns in states where they do not live? Does this donor activity affect the outcome of state-level direct democracy elections? This paper examines the activity and potential influence of out-of-state campaign contributions on direct democracy politics in the United States. Using a novel dataset tracking the geographic origins of donations to statewide ballot initiatives and referendum campaigns across all 26 applicable US states, I examine three key aspects of out-of-state influence. First, I detail overall out-of-state contribution levels and find that not only do they comprise a significant portion of total campaign funds, but this out-of-state interest has increased over time. Second, I explore state-level factors predicting variation in out-of-state contribution activity, with initial evidence demonstrating that economic, political, and competitive dynamics strongly shape out-of-state donor mobilization. Third, I examine the relationship between out-of-state contribution levels and direct democracy outcomes using an instrumental variables approach. By detailing both the flow and persuasive force of out-of-state money, this paper provides new evidence that direct lawmaking systems remain vulnerable to cross-state influence. These findings add new perspectives to discussions of direct democracy campaign finance, federalism, and the theoretical promise of direct democracy processes as “politics of the people”.

Author

• Madison Schroder