Patterns of Trade in Medical Goods: A Tale of Two Regime Types

• In Event: Political Regimes and Economic Policies

Abstract

Over the past decade, the awareness for strategic dependencies of many developing and developed countries on inputs provided by autocracies has grown steadily. These developments are taking place in the context of declining multilateralism in the patterns of trade and trade policy (Aiyar et al., 2023). While research concerned with this topic often focuses on raw materials (Kamin et al., 2023), development aid (Gafuri, 2022) or sovereign debt (Gelpern et al., 2022), specific dependencies on medical goods have not been analysed extensively.

This is surprising as autocracies have used trade in medical goods such as personal protective equipment, therapeutics, and vaccines extensively as geopolitical tools (Rudolf, 2021). Simultaneously, industrialised democracies have become dependent on inputs provided by autocracies, while they also systematically retreated from providing developing countries with medical goods (Bayerlein, 2023). This was most evident during the COVID-19 pandemic with the vaccine distribution among Western democracies being remarkably void of geopolitical considerations, with many developing countries resorting to vaccines provided by China. In addressing this research gap, we answer the following questions:

How do patterns of trade in medical goods differ between autocracies and democracies, and are medical goods increasingly being used to pursue geopolitical interests?

We answer these research questions by drawing on UN Comtrade, with which we compile a large and granular dataset on country-based trade flows in medical commodities. We combine this with data from the V-Dem project to distinguish between regime types. Using this approach, we are able to map export patterns of democracies and autocracies, especially with regard to developing countries. Based on this, we can uncover the formation of blocks and new alliances between autocracies and developing countries rooted in the supply of medical goods. The granular dataset also allows us to identify specific demand elasticities and analyse newly created and long-lasting dependencies.

Authors

• Michael Bayerlein, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)

• Vanessa Alexandra Boese-Schlosser, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

• Scott Gates, PRIO and University of Oslo

• Katrin Kamin, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

• S Mansoob Murshed, ISS-Erasmus University of Rotterdam