Can Citizens “See” Elite Infighting in Authoritarian Regimes?

• In Event: Central-Local and State-Society Relations in China and Vietnam

Abstract

Authoritarian regimes shape public narratives about intra-elite purges to maintain a facade of unity, but citizens' prior beliefs about factionalism might undermine these narratives' effectiveness. Through two survey experiments, I explore how Chinese and Vietnamese citizens diverge in their beliefs about elite factional ties and, consequently, in how they interpret the motivations behind the regime's disciplinary actions. The first experiment asks respondents to predict the promotion prospects of candidates with varying qualifications and connections to an office leader in a public versus private sector setting. While both groups value meritocratic qualities, only Chinese respondents perceive that a candidate’s informal ties confer an additional advantage in public versus private sector promotions. The second experiment presents news articles about a corruption investigation and finds that omitting details about an investigated official's connections to former local leaders reduces perceptions of ulterior political motives in China but not in Vietnam.

Author

• Duy Trinh, Princeton University