Social Desirability Bias in International Relations? Evidence from Japan

• In Event: Attitudes Related to International Relations and Foreign Policy

Abstract

Do surveys on international relations capture sincere public opinion? Media companies and research institutes, especially in democracies, often conduct public opinion surveys on how the government addresses foreign affairs. Previous literature finds that policymakers rely on these surveys as an important source for decision-making. However, it is possible that the answers to a survey are plagued by social desirability bias. For example, if it is widely believed that most of the citizens in a country prefer military solutions over a contentious issue, hawkish answers may be overrepresented if a survey uses direct questions. If that is the case, decision-makers may not know the true opinion of the public. To investigate this possibility, we conduct a list experiment in Japan to examine whether and how many Japanese people support military options or concessions for the Senkaku/Diaoyu island dispute with China and the Northern Territorial Issue with Russia. Our study has both academic and policy implications. Academically, if we find evidence for social desirability bias, this study will challenge the conventional wisdom that democracies have an advantage in international relations because they can reveal credible information in interstate bargaining. Regarding policy, without survey designs that account for social desirability bias, foreign policy decision-makers would make their decisions based on biased information on public opinion.

Authors

• Yasuki Kudo, University of Texas at Austin

• Sohei Shigemura, Hiroshima University

• Makito Takei, Tecnologico de Monterrey