Uncertainty and Long-Term Mobilization: Families of the Disappeared in Mexico

• In Event: Transitional Justice and Post-Conflict Repair

Abstract

One of the most surprising yet overlooked facts about victim’s responses in cases of widespread human rights violations is that it is predominantly families of disappeared persons who organize and engage in collective action to demand justice (Bosco, 2006; Audran, 2017; Seoighe, 2016; Zia, 2019; Kovras, 2017; Nagle, 2020). This is puzzling because in these contexts, the cases of other crimes such as homicide are up to three times as much as cases of disappearance, yet the vast majority of mobilized family members are families of disappeared persons (López-Pérez, 2024). Why does mobilization vary depending on the type of victimization? Why, in most cases, are families of disappeared persons who mobilize for justice? I draw on the literature on social psychology and social movements to propose a theory of duration of uncertainty and duration of high-risk mobilization. I argue that different from other forms of victimization, the uncertainty of whether disappeared persons are alive or dead delays expectations of redressing their grievances, which extends time horizons for mobilization. I present results from an original survey and focus groups with families of disappeared persons and families of victims of homicide in the context of Mexico’s War on Drugs, arguably the country experiencing the largest criminal conflict in the world, as well as the most violent country not undergoing a civil or international war (UN, 2021). In this context, victims’ families have organized in hundreds of groups to demand justice. The number of groups of families of disappeared persons in Mexico that mobilize for justice is at least eight times larger than groups of families or victims of homicide (López-Pérez, 2024), even though the numbers of disappeared persons are three times lower than those that have been murdered. These findings contribute to the literature on social movements and collective action by understanding high-risk mobilization in criminal wars.

Author

• Laura N López-Pérez, University of Notre Dame