Diplomacy in Crisis: Effect of President Zelensky's Diplomatic Endeavors

• In Event: Diplomacy

Abstract

In the past year, President Zelensky exhibited an extraordinary commitment to foreign diplomacy, investing 1.5 months in navigating the complexities of war—an unparalleled dedication for a leader in such challenging circumstances. While there is a common assumption that these engagements can stimulate an upswing in both state (military and financial) and public (private donations) support in the countries involved, empirical testing of whether such contacts actively shape assistance during crises has received limited attention.

The existing literature presents a lack of consensus regarding the effective outputs of high-level diplomatic meetings. Some works anticipate a tangible policy output from such contacts (Koliev & Lundgren, 2021), while others expect no or irrelevant effects (Darnton, 2020; Lebovic & Saunders, 2016). Recent studies (Goldsmith et al., 2021), however, demonstrate that top-level diplomatic visits positively impact public support for the visiting leader and enhance global awareness of their nation. This positive effect is attributed to the media coverage dedicated to these significant events. Nevertheless, we still know little whether the public approval generated by these visits can translate into tangible aid or benefits for the country of the visiting leader.

This research seeks to address this gap by examining the effects of public diplomatic efforts undertaken by the Ukrainian political leadership on support initiatives at both state and private levels during times of conflict. Our future analysis aims to delve into the various types of diplomatic endeavors initiated by the Zelensky office, including visits to foreign countries, hosting top-politician visitors, participating in political events, and addressing foreign audiences. The investigation will explore whether these diverse forms of public diplomacy could lead to increased support for Ukraine at the government level (financial and military aid) and the public level (from companies and private donations). To achieve this, we combine multiple datasets and collect available information related to various public and private aids to Ukraine, complemented by details on the diplomatic efforts of the Zelensky office targeting political elites and citizens of foreign countries.

In addressing potential endogeneity issues and the non-random timing of diplomatic contacts, we plan to adopt a robust quasi-experimental design, specifically a synthetic difference-in-difference model (Arkhangelsky et al., 2021). The inherent time-series structure of our data will enable us to control for temporal variation trends and elucidate potential driving factors behind them.

Leveraging the well-documented nature of Zelensky's diplomatic endeavours and the detailed tracking of diverse aid to Ukraine, our study seeks to uncover novel nuances in public diplomacy outcomes during crisis periods. By adopting a quasi-experimental design, our study aims to identify the causal impact of high-level visits, thus expanding the existing understanding of the dynamics between public diplomatic efforts and subsequent aid and support initiatives.

References

Arkhangelsky, D., Athey, S., Hirshberg, D. A., Imbens, G. W., & Wager, S. (2021). Synthetic difference-in-differences. American Economic Review, 111(12), 4088-4118.
Darnton, C. (2020). Public diplomacy and international conflict resolution: A cautionary case from cold war South America. Foreign Policy Analysis, 16(1), 1-20.
Goldsmith, B. E., Horiuchi, Y., & Matush, K. (2021). Does public diplomacy sway foreign public opinion? Identifying the effect of high-level visits. American Political Science Review, 115(4), 1342-1357.
Koliev, F., & Lundgren, M. (2021). Visiting the hegemon: Explaining diplomatic visits to the United States. Research & Politics, 8(4), 20531680211066767.
Lebovic, J. H., & Saunders, E. N. (2016). The diplomatic core: The determinants of high-level US diplomatic visits, 1946–2010. International Studies Quarterly, 60(1), 107-123.

Authors

• TAMARA GRECHANAYA, University of Milan

• Andrea Ceron, Università degli Studi di Milano