Wait for the Right Time: Leader’s Tenure and International Cooperation

• In Event: Political Leadership and Conflict

Abstract

It has been argued that hawkish leaders face fewer domestic barriers when it comes to pursuing reconciliation with foreign adversaries. This hawk’s advantage exists because conciliatory efforts made by hawks can be perceived as serving a country’s national interests, while the same efforts made by doves are usually criticized for being weak. However, there are also findings that show doves, despite their domestic disadvantage, are more likely to be approached by foreign adversaries for rapprochement. This paper seeks to clarify these seemingly conflicting tendencies. It argues that hawks do enjoy a domestic advantage in pursuing cooperation with foreign adversaries, but only during the early stages of their tenure. Doves can cultivate a reputation for competence as their time in office increases, enhancing their ability to justify conciliatory efforts. We test this argument using both observational data and a survey experiment. Drawing on ICEWS event data, the observational study demonstrates that doves are more likely to receive the olive branch from foreign adversaries, but only later in their tenure. This pattern is strongest when the dove took the office from a more hawkish predecessor. A survey experiment is fielded to further test the mechanisms underlying the argument. We find that priming respondents about the leader’s competence makes them significantly more tolerant of a dovish leader’s conciliatory actions toward a foreign adversary.

Author

• Chen Wang, University of Idaho