Economy of Shells: Attrition in Modern Warfare

• In Event: Targeting Civilians and Leaders in War

Abstract

Most modern wars, especially those involving state combatants, have been limited or low-intensity conflicts. With intervals and investments to refurbish equipment and replenish supplies, militaries do not suffer attrition. In fact, if the perception of external threats persists the military is likely to grow in quantity or quality in the context of limited war when demand and supply dovetail. In total war, attrition is likely to surpass this pace and thereby degrade military capabilities over time. With novel data on captured, damaged, or destroyed equipment in the Russia-Ukraine War, we demonstrate and quantify the degree of degradation that has occurred since the conflict’s onset. From this foundation, we theorize on how this has affected three aspects of combat. First, we describe a shift in tempo as remaining assets must be spread thinner across time and space. Second, as combatants resort to dated or inferior platforms that remain, military effectiveness decreases and casualties—both soldier and civilian—increase. Third, states are compelled to substitute depleted equipment with commercial analogs or import military-grade replacements, which might entail more variability of the tools of conflict, external political pressures, or the forging of geopolitically destabilizing partnerships. As great power competition grows in salience, we contribute to studies on modern and future war and force planning.

Authors

• Ori Swed, Texas Tech University

• Kerry Chavez, U.S. Air Force Academy