Navigating the Role of Intergenerational Transmission on Policy Feedback

• In Event: Bureaucracy and Policy Dynamics: A Comparative Perspective

Abstract

Public policy scholars are increasingly focusing on policy feedback to analyze the dynamics of policy change. This involves assessing the impact of past policies at time t1 on subsequent policies at time t2, encompassing both self-reinforcing and self-undermining effects. Previous studies have elucidated how past policies shape public perceptions and behaviors through resource effects and interpretive effects, particularly in gauging the public's willingness to engage with subsequent policies. Amidst long-term policy changes, policy feedback's role extends beyond one generation, especially in interventions related to citizens' family life. Experiences and perceptions shaped by policies in the previous generation can be transmitted within families to influence the political behavior, attitudes, and behaviors of the next generation. While scholars have explored the intergenerational transmission of political behavior within families, there is still a need for further exploration of family intergenerational feedback regarding policies.
This study aims to investigate the role of intergenerational transmission in policy feedback by examining how the previous generation's adherence to past policies influences individuals' acceptance of new policies. Using data from the China Family Panel Survey (CFPS), we explore how individuals' acceptance of the current fertility policy is affected by the outcomes of past fertility policies. Logistic regressions reveal that individuals' willingness to accept the three-child policy is negatively influenced by their parents' compliance with the one-child policy. To mitigate endogeneity bias, we leverage the natural experiment of China's one-child policy, employing a regression discontinuity design to examine this external policy shock. Our findings suggest that individuals' acceptance of the three-child policy is negatively determined by their parents' compliance with the one-child policy, indicating a negative impact on fertility intentions. This impact is driven by a weakened belief in the notion of raising children against old age or carrying on the family line.
Our study provides evidence of the intergenerational mechanism of policy feedback, transmitting through family generations to shape the beliefs of the younger generation and impacting future policy changes. The extended period of policy changes inevitably results in policy feedback spanning beyond one generation, with multi-generational policy feedback transmission primarily occurring within families. The policy behavior of the older generation influences the values of the younger generation through internal socialization, known as the interpretive effects mechanism, subsequently affecting the attitudes and acceptance of the younger generation toward new policies.

Authors

• Yue Guo, School of Government, Beijing Normal University

• Zihan Xu, School of Government, Beijing Normal University

• Qian Zhang, Beijing Normal University