Incidental Perceptions Shape Strategies for Responding to Violence

• In Event: Poster Session: Comparative Politics

Abstract

What shapes people's behavior during violence? Understanding how civilians make decisions in dangerous times helps explain a range of political phenomena, because individual choices shape events ranging from refugee crises, mass riots, and civilian resilience during political conflicts to international security puzzles like combat motivation, and the dynamics of deterrence and escalation in interstate crises. Using a large lab-in-the-field experiment in Kenya, I show that individually-varying, manipulable ``appraisals'', perceptions of violent situations, shape individuals' strategy preferences. Participants primed to feel more ``in control'' are 7 percentage points more likely to respond to violence by approaching threat sources (either to attack it or bargain with it). Participants primed to feel more certainty are up to 32 percentage points more likely to respond to violence with conservative, less disruptive strategies (like hiding from danger, bargaining, or ignoring threats). Exploratory analyses suggest that treatments work by changing participants' assumptions about relative power and uncertainty in violence scenarios. This study contributes to research on decision-making about violence by showing that perceptions shape decision-making, but also that important perceptions can be manipulated and are not simply derived from personality traits, socioeconomic millieu, or situation-specific information.

Author

• Aidan Milliff, Florida State University