The Subnational Foundations of Party System Change in Contemporary Mexico

• In Event: Understanding Variation in Party Positions

Abstract

The party system that emerged after Mexico’s transition to democracy in 1997 was characterized by the presence of three large parties (PRD-center left, PRI-center, and PAN-right), and a few additional “satellite” parties at both sides of the ideological spectrum. However, the results of the 2018 election, which brought MORENA (center-left) to power on the shoulders of a populist figure, reconfigured the terms of electoral competition, substituting the tripolar system of the transition, with a highly asymmetrical bipolar one. These results along with the hegemonic pretensions of MORENA have realigned the cleavage structure of the system from one based on the traditional left-right spectrum, to one based on a populist/anti-populist one, with the ruling party and the smaller PVEM and PT on one pole, and the rest of the parties on the opposite side. Existing explanations of these changes have largely focused on the effects on voting preferences of corruption scandals during the Peña-Nieto administration (PRI, 2012-2018) and the long-term security crisis that has engulfed the country since 2006. While these factors are undoubtedly of importance, in this paper I argue that more attention should be paid to the role played by subnational political actors who shifted allegiances before the 2018 election as a strategy of political survival.

Author

• Juan Fernando Ibarra del Cueto, Colgate University