The Effect of Violence on Turnout at Different Levels of Government

• In Event: Political Violence in Latin America

Abstract

How does experiencing violent conflict impact voting behavior? Recent studies have examined the impact of civil wars and violence on political participation. There is no consistent support for whether experiencing conflict increases or decreases voter turnout, while there is mixed evidence about the impact of conflict on other forms of political behavior. In this study, we examine this question using the case of Colombia’s civil war. We use administrative records of votes from Colombia’s national registry and the ViPAA dataset, which contains municipality-level data on the presence of violent actors in Colombia. Using a dynamic difference-in-differences design, we examine the effect of the violent presence of government forces, guerrillas, and paramilitary actors on voter turnout in mayoral, gubernatorial, and national elections from 1988 to 2019. Therefore, we provide causal evidence of the short- and long-term impact of experiencing violence exerted by different political actors in elections across all levels of governance.

Authors

• Cecilia Cavero-Sanchez, The Pennsylvania State University

• Giancarlo Visconti, University of Maryland, College Park