From “Old Friends” to “New Cold War”: Subnational US-China Relations, 2012-2022

• In Event: Federalism in Comparative Perspective

Abstract

What explains patterns of subnational foreign engagement during periods of rising international tension? During the past decade, national-level US policy toward China has veered from engagement to confrontation. State-level relations with China, however, have not always followed suit. While on the whole, US states also have adopted increasingly hawkish policies toward China, there has been considerable variation in subnational outcomes, with some states adopting cooperative approaches, others confrontational ones, and many others a mix of the two. In this paper, we seek to explain empirical variation across time and space in state-level US-China relations and to address broader theoretical questions about the dynamics of subnational diplomacy amid great power rivalry. We draw on an original dataset of state-year-level indicators from 2012-2022, exploring how targeted diplomatic outreach by the PRC, preexisting economic ties to China, characteristics of state leaders, and demands from civil society and business groups, among other variables, affect the mix of China-related policies different states adopt. We complement this quantitative analysis with a paired comparison of two Republican-dominated states—Florida and Indiana—that took different approaches to China. Our research helps illuminate an understudied aspect of the contemporary US-China relationship, and contributes to a growing literature on subnational foreign relations.

Authors

• Kyle Alan Jaros, University of Notre Dame

• Sara A. Newland, Smith College