Climate Policy and Political Polarization along Occupational Lines

• In Event: Political Economy of Environmental Policy

Abstract

Climate change policies create economic winners and losers. To what extent has the increased importance of climate change and climate change policies resulted in political polarization along occupational lines? We examine this question in the context of Germany, a country that has adopted some of the most far-reaching energy transition policies and that also has substantial employment in heavy emissions (``brown'') occupations. The far right AfD started campaigning as the only party opposing energy transition policies in 2016. We first show that the AfD gained significantly and the Greens lost in communities with larger shares of employment in brown industries between the 2013 and 2017 elections. We then use individual-level panel data to show that since 2016, individuals in brown occupations have become significantly more likely to identify with the far right and less likely to identify with the Greens. These findings are not (fully) attributable to compositional effects in the sample or simultaneous political changes, most notably the 2015 migrant crisis.

Authors

• Vincent Heddesheimer, Princeton University

• Hanno Hilbig, UC Davis

• Erik Voeten, Georgetown University