The Effect of Mass Shootings on Voter Turnout in the United States

• In Event: Electoral Effects of Scandals, Crime, and Punishment

Abstract

Mass shootings occur with astonishing and horrifying regularity in the United States. In pursuit of change, many point to elections -- and voting -- as a key path forward. Indeed, prior work on other forms of local negative events, such as police killings, tell us that in the wake of tragedy voters do turn out at higher rates. This is further amplified if government (in)action is understood to be a root cause of the problem and if the event appears to be particularly targeted. However, work specifically on mass shootings in the United States has produced mixed results. Further the few studies that specifically examine voter turnout focus on school shootings -- not mass shootings generally. Here we seek to first disentangle why, at least in part, prior studies come to conflicting conclusions by using more granular data (precincts vs counties), and second, we offer a more expansive look at the effect of mass shootings (school shootings vs all mass shootings). To do so, we turn data from the Gun Violence Archive and block group level turnout data from L2 Political. Using a regression discontinuity in time design at the block group level, we find that mass shootings close to an election mobilizes local voters, and only occurs in Black neighborhoods.

Authors

• Kelsey Shoub, University of Massachusetts Amherst

• Kevin Thomas Morris, Brennan Center for Justice