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Since the 1980s, there has been a moderate but persistent difference in men's and women's candidate preference, commonly referred to as the gender gap. I argue that to understand the differences in men's and women's voting behavior, we must understand differences in their basic orientations to politics and their partisan attachments. This project has two goals: (1) explain why the gender gap in partisanship emerged in the late 1970s and has continued to grow, and (2) explain when and why group-based identities align with partisan identities. I develop partisan self-categorization theory to accomplish both of these goals. Partisan self-categorization theory identifies both the macro-level conditions and the micro-level processes that lead to the alignment of social and partisan identities. I then test the individual-level expectations of the theory on data from the 2016 and 2018 CES.
At the macro level, two conditions shape the salience of the group-based identity and are necessary for an individual to connect a group-based social identity and partisan identity. The identity must be accessible, meaning that the identity is politically relevant and that individuals hold that identity. I argue that gendered social identities have always been politically relevant and present in the electorate. Second, the group-based identity must demonstrate a normative fit with the parties, meaning the identity must help differentiate the political parties. At the micro level, partisan self-categorization outlines a comparative process, meta-contrast, that individuals use to align group-based social identities and partisan identities. During meta-contrast, the individual assesses which party they feel best "represents" a group-based identity important to their sense of self. An individual will form an attachment to the political party that they view as closest to the social identity or where there is the greatest overlap between the party and the social identity. The normative fit between gender and political parties is critical to forming the gender gap in partisanship. For much of U.S. history, both parties offered similar representations of gendered social identities, meaning these identities would not be useful in differentiating the political partisan and thus unaligned with partisanship. However, starting with the New Deal realignment, the parties began to slowly differentiate. However, these changes were not evident to the average person until the 1970s and early 1980s.
With the macro-level conditions established, I then test if individuals have aligned their gendered social identities with their partisan identities as predicted by partisan self-categorization theory. I developed a measure of gender-party distance by using questions about the individual's gendered social identity and their perceptions of the parties on a module in the 2016 and 2018 CCES. The gender-party distance measure captures the product of the meta-contrast process and the overlap between an individual's gendered social identity and their perception of the parties' representation of that gendered social identity. The results of this analysis support the expectations that individuals will form an attachment to the political party that they view as closest to their sense of self. Moreover, by examining differences in the weights men and women place on the gender-party difference measures, we gain further insight into the gender gap in partisanship. Overall, I demonstrate that the gender gap results from the complex interaction of men and women holding different gendered social identities, how they evaluate the party's representation of gendered social identities, and the weight they place on these different factors.